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In this unique exploration of the role of
risk in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the notion of bringing
risk under control is one of the central ideas that distinguishes modern
times from the more distant past. Against the Gods, a narrative that
reads like a novel, chronicles the remarkable intellectual adventure that
liberated humanity from the oracles and soothsayers by means of the
powerful tools of risk management that are available to us today.
This is a richly-woven tale of Greek philosophers and Arab mathematicians,
of merchants and scientists, gamblers and philosophers, world-renowned
intellects and obscure but inspired amateurs who helped discover the
modern methods of putting the future at the service of the present,
replacing helplessness before the fates with choice and decision.
When investors buy stocks, surgeons perform
operations, engineers design bridges, entrepreneurs launch new businesses,
astronauts explore the heavens, and politicians run for office, risk is
their inescapable partner. Yet their actions reveal that risk today
need not be feared: managing risk has become synonymous with
challenge and opportunity.
Bernstein presents fascinating vignettes of
such towering intellects as" Omar Khayyam, Pascal and
Bernoulli, Bayes and Keynes, Markowitz and Arrow, and Gauss, Galton and
von Neumann. With his engaging literary style, he clarifies the
concepts of probability, sampling, regression to the mean, game theory,
and rational versus irrational decision making., The final
sections of the book raise important questions about the role of the
computer, the relationship between facts and subjective beliefs, the
impact of chaos theory, the role of the burgeoning markets for
derivatives, and the looming dominance of numbers.
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of
Risk is that rare book that turns the most profound issues of our time
into pure reading pleasure.
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To
1200: Beginnings
1. The Winds of the Greeks and the
Role of the Dice
2. As Easy as I, II, III,
1200-1700: A Thousand Outstanding
Facts
3. The Renaissance Gambler
4. The French Connection
5. The Remarkable Notions of the
Remarkable Notions Man
1700-1900: Measurement Unlimited
6. Considering the Nature of Man
7. The Search for Moral Certainty
8. The Supreme Law of Unreason
9. The Man with the Sprained Brain
10. Peapods and Perils
11. The Fabric of Felicity
1900-1960: Clouds of Vagueness and
the Demand for Precision
12. The Measure of Our Ignorance
13. The Radically Distinct Notion
14. The Man Who Counted Everything
Except Calories
15. The Strange Case of the Anonymous
Stockbroker
. Degrees of Belief: Exploring
Uncertainty
16. The Failure of Variance
17. The Theory Police
18. The Fantastic System of Side
Bets
19. Awaiting the Wildness
Notes
Bibliography
Name Index
Subject Index
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